Climatic trends variability and concerning flow regime of Upper Indus Basin, Jehlum, and Kabul river basins Pakistan

Abstract The Indus Basin is referred to as a “water tower” which ensures water storage and supply sustain environmental human needs downstream by balanced combination of precipitation, snow, glaciers, surface water. Upper (UIB) combines the high mountain ranges Hindukush, Karakoram, Himalaya (HKH); this unique region largely controlled seasonal meltwater associated with snow glacier melt during summer months. present study seeks evaluate changes in hydrological meteorological variable data collected through network 35 hydrometric 15 climatic stations, respectively, across UIB, Jehlum, Kabul river basins Pakistan. Innovative Trend Significance Test (ITST) Modified-Mann-Kendall (MMK) test was used for seeking trends, while Sen’s method applied slope determination detected trends over four periods differing lengths ( T 1 : 1961–2013; 2 1971–2013; 3 1981–2013; 4 1991–2013). Significant decreases were observed mean distinct months (June–August) temperature ) at most stations , significant increases dominant shorter . precipitation P significantly negative ten July; however, positive August September. For streamflow, upward summer, June July flows (snowmelt dominant) within glacier-fed Hunza, Shigar, Shyok; contrast, streamflow (glacier decreased September recent period snow-fed basins, Kachura, Gilgit Gilgit, Alam Bridge, Astore Doyian – ). In particular, stronger more prominent signal decreasing evident predominantly basins. This apparent flows, large number featuring downward Jehlum concludes that vulnerability related stress becoming intense due increased temperature, reduced